《大行》晨星:相信新世界(00017.HK)很可能避免違約
宣布推遲支付永續債利息的新世界發展(00017.HK)昨日急跌逾6%後,今早曾反彈近9%。晨星表示,儘管市場反應負面,延遲支付利息符合該行的預期,因為新世界的流動性依然緊張。該行預計公司將優先於2025年7月之前為875億元的銀行貸款進行再融資。
雖然晨星相信新世界很可能避免違約,但其淨負債比率(2024年12月為55%,不包括永續債務)應高於大多數同行。鑑於2025財年強勁的物業預售表現,該行將其2026至2027財年收入預測上調2%至3%,但預計因定價疲軟,利潤率將下降。
晨星指出,截至2025年5月,新世界在啟德的柏蔚森和北角的皇都分別錄得40億元和36億元的合約銷售額。該行預計6月新推出的黃竹坑項目將進一步增加其銷售額。
晨星維持對無護城河的新世界每股4.4港元的公允價值估計,因對其的大多數長期預測保持不變。該行認為新世界發展的股價合理,更偏好資產負債表更健康、股息支付更穩定的地產發展商,如恆地(00012.HK)。
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