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《大行》招銀國際升石藥集團(01093.HK)目標價至10.08元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 06-03 11:00
招銀國際研究報告指,石藥集團(01093.HK)業務在今年首季是實現按季復蘇,首季總收入為70億人民幣(下同),其中包括來自授權許可(BD)的7.18億元收入。剔除BD影響後,核心收入達到63億元(按季增長1%),佔該行先前2025財年預估的22%。剔除BD影響後,核心淨利潤達到8.68億元(按季增長58%),佔2025財年預估的27%。成品藥銷售(不含BD收入)按季下降5%,按年下降37%,主要由於中樞神經系統(CNS)產品按季下降21%,NBP產品在國家醫保藥品目錄(NRDL)價格下調後的渠道補償所致。管理層繼續指引2025財年NBP銷售將保持全年穩定。腫瘤產品銷售按季下降7%。2025年首季,銷售費用按季下降19%至17億元,主要由於核心產品如多美素和金優力的集中採購(VBP)影響。管理層預計新推出產品的收入將部分抵消傳統產品的下降。 該行預計,石藥集團繼2024年年末授權許可兩項資產——脂蛋白(a)和MAT2A抑制劑後,該集團於2025年又完成了兩項額外的BD協議。集團管理層表示,2025年預計將再達成三項大型授權許可交易,每項交易的潛在價值超過50億美元。這些交易包括石藥集團的EGFR ADC和兩個關鍵技術平台的授權許可,預計最早於6月達成。 招銀國際認為,集團的BD交易將是推動盈利增長的關鍵可持續驅動因素。考慮到短期內三項潛在大型BD交易的積極貢獻,預期集團2025年的收入和淨利潤將分別按年增長5.8%和30.4%。該行將石藥集團目標價從5.71港元上調至10.08港元(加權平均資本成本9.49%,長期增長率2.0%);維持「買入」評級。
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