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《大行》麥格理升理想(02015.HK)目標價至110元 評級「中性」
阿思達克 05-30 16:43
麥格理發表研究報告,將理想-W(02015.HK)(LI.US))估值基準延展至2026財年,維持目標市盈率14倍不變,H股目標價升至110港元,美股目標價則升至28美元。該行指,雖因成本控制改善而調高每股盈餘預測和目標價,但對競爭仍保持謹慎態度,維持「中性」評級。 該行表示,理想汽車今年首季業績收入為259億元人民幣(下同),優於市場和該行預期分別3%及8%,也高於247億元的指引上限。毛利率為20.5%(對比該行預期20.2%);營運利潤率為1%,分別高於市場和該行預期的負0.7%及負0.8%,因成本控制優於預期,研發及銷售管理費用低於預期。 但該行指,調整後純利為10.18億元,低於市場和該行預期分別11.94億及10.94億元,受累其他非營運收入低於預期。現金淨流出達126億元,為公司最大的季度現金淨流出。 理想汽車於次季的指引低於預期,包括次季銷售指引分別為12.3萬至12.8萬輛(相當於按年增長13%至18%),中點12.55萬輛,低於市場和該行預期的12.9萬及12.56萬輛。次季收入指引為325至338億元(對比市場預期346億元)。表明5月初車型更新的訂單增長低於預期。管理層預計車輛利潤率將維持在19%左右。 麥格理認為,雖然指引略低於預期,但理想汽車預計MEGA Home的接受度高於預期,認為應該能支撐利潤率。而該公司終於確認將目光投向SUV以外領域,進軍轎車和MPV市場。這有助消除了市場的一大隱憂,因為若不擴展產品線,2026年後的銷量顯著增長潛力難以預測。 針對理想汽車的主要風險,該行認為下行風險包括來自華為支持的AITO品牌的直接競爭,嚴重的價格競爭對車輛利潤率造成壓力,插電式混合動力、增程式電動車需求的結構性下降。上行風險是,純電動SUV系列的強勁/提早推出,持續的電動車購買政策支持。
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