研報掘金丨華源證券:鹽湖股份盈利雙輪驅動,首予“買入”評級
華源證券研報指出,鹽湖股份(000792.SZ)爲鉀肥和鹽湖提鋰龍頭,盈利雙輪驅動。2025年是公司融入中國五礦體系和中國鹽湖的開局之年,公司積極融入公司控股股東中國鹽湖“三步走”發展戰略。今年年初以來鉀肥供給端擾動加劇,兩俄目前已經落地的減產計劃預計將形成至少160萬噸的供給減量,疊加春季北半球需求旺季,鉀肥價格有望企穩回升,從而驅動公司鉀肥板塊盈利增長。在以舊換新等消費政策下,國內電車需求或超預期,25年鋰過剩幅度有望收窄,預計2025年鋰價或在6-8萬元/噸底部震盪,26年有望迎來底部回升。選取鉀肥、鋰礦和鋰鹽企業爲可比公司,2025-2027年平均PE分別爲32/17/13倍,公司作爲國內鉀肥龍頭和鹽湖提鋰龍頭,鉀肥價格25年有望迎來企穩回升,鋰鹽新建4萬噸產能釋放有望貢獻新增量,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。
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