《大行》招商證券維持長期看好比亞迪(01211.HK)吉利(00175.HK) 各予評級「增持」
中國電動汽車市場正展開激烈價格戰,其中比亞迪(01211.HK)加強宣傳「618」促銷優惠,引發外界關注。招商證券發表研究報告,認為淡季行業庫存上升,終端銷售承壓,促銷是正常手段。而比亞迪電動化已成功且大幅領先,冀以降價獲得更多市場份額是乘勝追擊,整合市場。該行認為,隨著新能源車市場滲透率突破50%,國產車在品牌力與規模化能力方面已形成優勢,產生滾雪球效應,未來銷量向國產龍頭集中趨勢明顯。
該行預計,促銷對比亞迪業績的負面影響有限,因公司海外業務今明年持續強勁增長,且出口利潤率高於國內;高端品牌如騰勢、方程豹銷量較去年明顯提升;行業通常要求供應鏈降價3%至5%;碳酸鋰單噸成本較去年大幅下降。以上因素可在一定程度上抵消促銷影響。
該行看好比亞迪、吉利汽車(00175.HK)長期均受益,中短期吉利彈性更大,認為比亞迪與吉利龍頭之爭態勢已成,互有攻守將是常態,雙方在階段性相持階段(如淡季)會出現降價優惠競爭,但隨著產品周期走強及淡旺季切換,競爭將逐步消退。
該行指,長期而言,比亞迪與吉利均受益於行業集中度提升,兩者市佔率均有望繼續提高。短期股價受市場情緒偏負面衝擊,情緒消退後將重回增長態勢,市場將更關注交付量,建議逢低買入。維持長期看好比亞迪、吉利汽車,考慮當前市值規模,中短期吉利汽車的彈性或更大,予吉利目標價27.5港元,比亞迪H股目標價510港元,均予「增持」評級。
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