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《大行》花旗降金山雲(KC.US)目標價至19美元 首季收入及毛利率遜
花旗銀行發表報告,指金山雲(03896.HK)(KC.US)今年首個季度收入及毛利率低於市場共識,下調金山雲2025、2026及2027年收入預測2%,以反映第一季度收入增長弱於預期,將目標價從21.5美元下調至19美元。該行認爲母公司AI算力需求快速增長的故事基本保持完整。維持「買入」評級。 該行表示,金山雲今年首季收入按年增長11%至19.7億元人民幣,低於市場共識預期的21.8億元,其中私有雲服務(PCS)和公有雲服務(ECS)分別按年增長14%和5%。因經營槓桿效應及租賃成本,Non-GAAP毛利率按季度從2024年四季度的19.2%降至16.6%。調整後EBITDA利潤率從四季度的15.7%升至16.1%,受益於AI算力需求的更高EBITDA利潤率。經調整後經營虧損1.88億元,高於市場共識的1.04億元。 管理層解釋,2025年第一季度PCS收入增長低於預期,是由於向小米(01810.HK)交付的一批AI算力延遲至3月底完成。管理層觀察到母公司(例如小米)的需求快速增長,例如小米最新的大型語言模型(LLM)使用金山雲的資源進行訓練,因此預計該分部增長將在今年剩餘時間加速。第一季度通常是企業雲服務(ECS)的淡季,因此項目交付預計從2025年第二季度起將回升,管理層看到國有企業和政府部門對將大型語言模型技術整合進其營運的穩健需求。
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