《大行》野村降拼多多(PDD.US)目標價至114美元 維持「中性」評級
野村證券研究報告指,中國線上零售商、Temu母公司拼多多(PDD.US)於中國境內投資增加及海外銷售走弱,下調對其2025至26財年盈利預測38%及32%,目標價從130美元下調至114美元,相當於2025財年預測市盈率16倍,維持「中性」評級。
野村認為,拼多多2025年首季度收入按年增長10%,較市場預期低6%。其中線上廣告收入按年增長15%,低於該行預測的升21%。非美國通用會計原則(Non-GAAP)純利按年下滑45%,較市場預期低39%,主因毛利疲弱。Non-GAAP經營利潤率收窄13.8個百分點至19%,低於市場預期的27%。利潤率收窄可能是由於跨境貿易政策和關稅重大調整下,導致中國境內投資增加及海外銷售疲弱。
該行預計,拼多多中國業務收入在第二季將保持11%的按年增長,但由於投資增加,中國業務經營溢利可能按年下滑46%。另預測2025財年中國業務收入增長12%,但經營溢利可能按年下降31%,經營利潤率下降16個百分點至25%。整體而言,該行料拼多多2025財年合併收入增長8%,經營溢利或下滑 30%。
該行同時認為Temu前景充滿不確定性,海外市場的策略正受到美國取消最低免稅額的考驗,若缺乏最低免稅額的利好效應,過往的低價策略恐難以為繼。預計Temu首季收入或下降2%,2026財年則有望恢復10%增長。
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