《大行》匯豐升理文造紙(02314.HK)目標價至2.4元 降玖紙(02689.HK)目標價至3.2元
匯豐研究發表報告指,中資紙業股年初至今股價累跌約8%,表現跑輸恆生國企指數同期表現(升約19%),主要因產能過剩問題持續,加上需求疲弱令價格承壓,導致庫存水平較高。但到5月,行業的平均利潤率因煤炭及紙漿價格下降而略有恢復,料虧損的紙業企業數量已達到高峯。
報告又指,近期行業有正面進展,包括本地及出口需求恢復,產能擴張已接近尾聲,以及平均售價下行空間有限等。但該行認爲仍然需要看到需求顯着恢復和供應顯着下降,以反映結構性改善,纔會對行業作估值重評。
該行預期行業銷售均價將於區間波動,主要受季節性影響,而疲弱的盈利能力及產能過剩持續限制其上行空間。該行將玖龍紙業(02689.HK)目標價由3.8元降至3.2元,料2025財年盈利增長35%;理文造紙(02314.HK)目標價由2.3元升至2.4元,料2025財年盈利增長16%;均予「持有」評級。
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