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《大行》中金:美團(03690.HK)外賣堅決應戰 料短期業績下調 但對長期有信心
阿思達克 05-27 14:21
美團-W(03690.HK)今日(27日)股價先跌後回升,盤中曾低見122.3元一度下滑5.5%,中午輾轉回升,最新報132元上揚2%,成交額95.75億元。 中金發表報告表示,美團(03690.HK)今年首季收入及經調整淨利潤超出該行預期,收入按年增長18%至866億人民幣,高該行預期1.4%;經調整淨利潤為109.5億人民幣,超出該行預期21%,主要受益於核心本地商業經營利潤超預期和未分配項目的經營虧損優於預期,經調整淨利率為12.6%。該行指美團旗下外賣業務堅決面對競爭,料短期業績下調,但對公司長期有信心。 該行估計,美團今年第二季外賣單量及到店酒旅GTV均有望穩健增長。首季美團核心本地商業收入按年增18%至643億人民幣,該行測算:1)外賣:公司持續迭代「拼好飯」和「神搶手」滿足用戶需求,首季外賣單量增速或接近10%,收入按年升14%。 該行預計美團第二季外賣單量延續首季的按年增速,但收入受補貼抵銷的影響按年增5%;2)閃購:公司持續豐富供給端及拓展下沉市場,截至3月底累計交易用戶數超過5億,首季單量增速為32%,考慮到公司4月正式發布即時零售品牌「美團閃購」並重點推廣,該行預計今年第二季單量按年增32%,維持較快增速;3)到店酒旅:今年首季GTV按年增長30%,該行預計今年第二季到店酒旅GTV按年增28%。整體該行預計今年第二季核心本地商業收入按年增11%達671億人民幣。 中金預計美團第二季外賣單位經濟(UE)承壓,測算今年首季外賣UE受到規模效應和補貼優化的帶動,按季及按年比均有所提升,但預計今年第二季外賣UE或將受到行業競爭加劇、補貼投入力度加大的影響,按年下滑幅度較大。今年首季到店酒旅業務經營利潤率按季基本持平,該行預計公司第二季到店酒旅經營利潤率受到低線城市拓展、輕快餐和特價團購單量佔比提升,以及酒旅業務季節性佔比較高等影響,按季略有下滑。整體該行預計第二季核心本地商業營業利潤119億人民幣,對應經營利潤率為17.7%。 該行下調美團2025和2026年經調整淨利潤預測分別13%和5%至409億和541億人民幣,主要考慮外賣補貼力度及海外投入加大等因素;但考慮公司外賣業務的韌性,中金維持對美團「跑贏行業」評級及目標價177元,對應2025及2026年預測經調整市盈率各25倍及18倍。
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