研報掘金丨第一上海:重申貴州茅臺“買入”評級,目標價1900元
第一上海研報指出,貴州茅臺(600519.SH)近期召開2024年股東大會,傳遞出清晰戰略信號:面對消費場景結構性遷移與政策環境變化,公司以文化傳承爲根基,展開一場“攻守兼備”的深度變革。管理層直面市場對公務消費收縮的疑慮,旗幟鮮明地強調對品質信仰、品牌張力與文化底蘊的堅守,並將戰略眼光投向更廣闊的消費圖景——從傳統場景向家庭聚會、個人重要時刻及全球化滲透延申。我們認爲,這本質上是從產品輸出到生活方式定義的價值躍遷。值得關注的是,茅臺歷史上數次在行業震盪期逆勢突圍,已充分驗證其體系韌性。此次提出的營銷體系迭代,實爲已驗證戰法的戰術升級。故我們認爲,憑藉釀造工藝構築的稀缺性壁壘,疊加文化敘事與場景創新的雙重賦能,茅臺有望在理性消費浪潮中持續掌握高端酒類的定價話語權。目前,公司正加快實施60億元上限的回購計劃,同時預計將制定新一期的股份回購方案和集團的增持方案。予目標價1900元,相當於25財年盈利預測25.1倍PE,重申“買入”評級。
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