《大行》海通國際降百度(09888.HK)目標價至111美元 維持「跑贏大市」評級
海通國際發表報告,下調百度集團(09888.HK)核心業務2025年經調整非美國通用會計原則(N-GAAP)淨利潤至240億人民幣,2025財年預測市盈率維持在12倍,目標價由124美元下調至111美元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
該行認為,百度集團營收按年增長3%至325億人民幣,超出市場共識5%;經調整淨利潤達65億人民幣(毛利率19.8%),較預期高出27%。百度核心業務營收按年增長7%至254億人民幣,超預期10%,當中核心廣告收入160億人民幣,按年下滑6%,符合市場預期;AI雲業務按年增長42%至66億人民幣,大幅優於市場預期。核心業務經調整營業利潤49億人民幣,超預期11%。百度核心業務經調整營業利潤率按年下降4.4個百分點、按季上升2.3個百分點至19.1%,與市場共識一致。
該行表示,儘管雲業務盈利能力改善,但由於預計大語言模型對廣告收入的影響將進一步擴大,廣告業務仍具有更高毛利,未來幾個季度核心業務的營業利潤率可能持續面臨壓力。該行預測2025年第二季度及全年核心業務非美國通用會計原則(N-GAAP)的營業利潤率分別為19.1%(按年下降4.4個百分點)及 17.4%(按年下降5.5個百分點)。
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