《大行》招銀降百度(BIDU.US)目標價至144.6美元 維持「買入」評級
招銀國際研究報告指,百度(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)2025年第一季度業績的核心業務收入達255億元人民幣,較市場預期高出10%。其核心業務非通用會計準則營運利潤達49億元人民幣,較市場共識高出11%。
考慮到廣告貨幣化放緩或超預期,而雲服務收入增長快於預期的綜合影響,招銀下調百度2025年收入、非通用會計準則淨利預測1%、7%。將目標價下調1%至144.6美元(原本146.7美元),維持「買入」評級。
百度雲服務2025年第一季度收入達67億元人民幣,按年增長42%,高於市場共識的26%增速。該行認爲,強勁增長受兩方面驅動,一是基於訂閱的雲服務收入在強勁需求推動下實現穩健增長,百度行業認可度不斷提升;二是基於項目的雲服務收入增長。
2025年第一季度,百度核心業務線上廣告收入爲160億元人民幣,按年下滑6%,符合預期。該行認爲,隨着大語言模型(LLM)性能快速提升且成本可顯着優化,百度正更積極地利用LLM推動搜索業務創新。4月,約35%的百度搜索結果由生成式AI產生,預計未來幾個季度這一佔比將超過50%。
該行指,百度正積極投資AI時代的發展機遇。雖然搜索業務的產品創新計劃較該行預期更積極主動,或對短期廣告收入復甦造成壓力,但認爲在強勁需求及百度品牌認知度提升的推動下,雲服務收入有望持續保持強勁增長。
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