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植耀輝:港股突破還需政策憧憬
阿思達克 03-21 09:09
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,隨着港股持續暢旺加上有好表現,筆者被街坊/途人問股之次數亦相應增加,不過開心的是絕大部分均是以止賺爲目的,與過去數年之情況(蟹貨如何是好)截然不同;但另一方面,年內真正追貨的投資者亦不多,反而是因持有之內銀/科技股蟹貨陸續鬆綁,故打算善價而沽。由於港股本輪升市由北水帶動,只要勢頭不減,暫亦不需急於減磅。至於恆指亦受此帶動下繼續上揚,本週便一度再創年內新高。只是業績期後尚有何利好催化劑,似乎要待內地推出更多經濟措施配合始有望再作突破。 外圍方面,聯儲局一如預期維持息率不變,主席鮑威爾表示經濟衰退及通脹風險均有所增加,令年內減息憧憬提高不少;至於黃總在Nvidia(NVDA.US)GTC大會上其實亦有頗多資訊(尤其是有關機械人之發展)值得留意及憧憬,無奈現時美股最大挑戰仍是特朗普政府反覆之對內/外政策,其影響所及更可能令美國經濟狀況急速惡化,並進一步打擊投資氣氛矣!所以美股現階段仍只會採取較保守策略。 業績股則當然要談談騰訊(00700.HK)。其去年業績有不俗表現,收入及Non-GAAP股東應佔溢利分別按年上升8%及41%,單計第四季按年亦升11%及30%。業務表現則以營銷服務增長20%最對板,增值服務表現則算穩定,金融科技及企業服務相對較失色。不過AI發展纔是重點。在分析員會議中,不少問題便圍繞AI之部署,管理層亦相當耐心地解答,相信是以此來釋除對其大增資本開支之疑慮;至於建議增加派息以及800億元回購股份計劃,前者實際意思不大,而回購金額雖較2024年之1,120億元有所減少,不過由於今年將加大AI投入,資金用於發展業務肯定較回購實際得多,所以對此亦不會有太大意見。總體而言,騰訊交出一份相當不俗之成績表,但亦正如大多數科技巨企一樣,資本開支因AI發展而急增,另外未來如何將AI發展融入業務上以創造更大效益纔是關鍵。至於股價由於年內已累升近25%,短期調整亦屬合理,持貨者可考慮續作中線持有。 (筆者持有Nvidia股份)~
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