植耀輝:美股續大幅波動 PRADA(01913.HK)併購宜觀望
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股在假期前夕有所反彈,恆指一週累升2.3%,收報21,395點,不過科指則表現一般,累跌0.3%,連續第六個星期下跌。短期表現仍需視乎美國關稅戰相關消息,尤其是美國總統特朗普就關稅之言論「一時一樣」,上週纔將對華關稅上調至最高245%,但近期又有消息指其態度又有所軟化,並表示仍相信中美雙方會就貿易協議達成共識。監於相關消息對全球金融市場之影響,相信港股短期仍會相當波動,急升暴跌仍時會出現矣。
至於美股亦續受到關稅之不確定性影響,道指隔晚(21日)再跌近千點,三大指數跌幅亦超過2%。特朗普繼續炮轟聯儲局主席鮑威爾不減息,同時又有報道提到特有意辭退鮑Sir。事實上,關稅所衍生之難題及挑戰將不斷髮酵,當中通脹問題必定會成爲外界最關心之議題,鮑Sir亦不只一次提到新關稅帶來通脹之壓力以及經濟前景之不確定性,所以筆者相信聯儲局至少要半年以上觀察期始再決定息口去向。在此段期間聯儲局如何應對特朗普之無理要求,相信會成爲大家茶餘飯後的其中一個話題。此外美股亦已踏入業績發佈期,雖然似變得不再重要,但企業尤其是科技公司對前景之看法如何仍有一定啓示,值得大家留意。
個股方面,談談PRADA(01913.HK)。該股上週表現一般,主要原因有二。其一是同業LVMH業績表現遜市場預期,首季銷售額出乎以料按年下跌3%,低於市場預期之2%增長;其次是集團較早前宣佈斥資約13.75億美元向Capri收購Versace,外界關注出價是否過高,以及未來業績會否受今次併購拖累。LVMH績差可能受到宏觀經濟環境又或集團自身因素影響,反而收購Versace則值得作深入探討。
若與2018年Michael Kors出資21億美元收購Versace相比,今次出價無疑低得多,這很大程度是與Versace盈利能力大縮水有關,皆因截至2024年3月底止年度經營溢利只得2,500萬美元,按年大跌84%;截至2024年12月底止之首9個月業績更錄得經營虧損4,100萬美元。所以對PARDA來說,在成功收購之後,如何能令Versace「重生」可謂極之關鍵,若一、兩年內未能扭虧,則PRADA業績亦恐受到拖累。
除此以外,兩個如此有鮮明風格之品牌如何達致協同效應亦是重點。事實上,以往PRADA亦有進行收購,於1999年收購設計師品牌Helmut Lang及Jil Sander,不過兩者並未爲PRADA帶來太多回報,更因理念及商業路線上存重大分歧,最終兩者亦難逃被出售之命運。所以今次PRADA斥巨資收購現階段雖結果難料,但對投資者而言相信會有相當保留。加上環球政經局勢不明,故現階段筆者亦暫不建議部署該股。
(筆者並未持有相關股份)~
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