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《大行》星展降潤燃(01193.HK)目標價至24.3元 評級「持有」
星展銀行研究報告,指華潤燃氣(01193.HK)首季供氣量增長受暖冬嚴重影響,工業需求仍續疲弱。該行認爲潤燃管理層設定的2025財年供氣量增長4%至5%的目標具挑戰性,且美國關稅影響尚未反映,後續仍有下行風險等,因此該行將增長假設下調1.3個百分點,至2%。星展下調潤燃目標價,由原先27元降至24.3元,評級「持有」。 報告提及潤燃受益於多元化採購策略,2025財年單位毛利提升每立方米1分人民幣的目標應可達成。值得注意的是,公司新籤與澳洲Woodside的15年期LNG長約,並與國家管網集團建立戰略合作以直接使用其LNG接收站,從而確保以具競爭力的價格供氣。 報告稱,部分區域舊樓拆除進度延遲,導致2024財年綜合服務營業額僅增長4%。潤燃管理層目標於2025財年營業額增長回升至20%至30%,主要基於客戶羣擴大帶動滲透率提升,以及拓展產品組合並推進舊屋拆除業務落地。星展認爲2025財年增長率將從2024年的4%提升至超過15%。 星展下調潤燃2025及2026財年各年盈測分別2.4%及2.6%,以反映供氣量增長假設的調整。修訂後,星展預計潤燃核心利潤於2025至2026財年各年分別增長約4.5%及7.4%。星展認爲銷氣量增長的不確定性將限制股價表現。
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