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《大行》匯豐研究料置業者將逐漸迴歸 偏好新地(00016.HK)嘉里建設(00683.HK)
匯豐環球研究發表報告,預計房地產和綜合企業板塊將繼續跑贏大市,因香港房地產市場的韌性不斷增強。投資者的低預期、穩步改善的業務基本面,以及良好的市場流動性應可能支持該板塊。一個月香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)從2024年底的4.6%大幅下降至昨日(22日)的0.67%。若這一低利率能持續,可能顯着改善該板塊的盈利前景。該行預計當前一個月HIBOR的均衡水平約爲2.75%,風險偏向下行。匯豐研究在該板塊中看到一些日益增長的積極因素——置業者正逐步迴歸,並建立按息將趨勢向下的預期,而發展商正在調整銷售策略以改善利潤率。該板塊可能在未來幾個月迎來盈測上調,因借貸成本降低。 匯豐研究指出,隨着HIBOR和儲蓄利率大幅下降,預計住宅市場將獲得更多支持,因置業者正在重新設定對抵押貸款利率的預期。匯豐經濟團隊預計2025年和2026年降息幅度不超過75個基點,料更多用家將從租賃物業轉向購買物業,這得到存置成本(cost of carry)恢復正值的支撐。住房租金一直在穩步上升。自2024年9月降息以來,房價小幅下降0.4%,相比之下,自2022年初以來下降約27%。 匯豐研究預期,發展將更重視去槓桿化,因短期庫存水平較高。然而,他們可能會較不激進地定價,或適度提高價格以改善利潤率。在衆多發展商中,該行相信新地(00016.HK)是少數具有良好盈利可見度和股息確定性的公司之一,而嘉里建設(00683.HK)的盈利復甦可能得到香港和上海高端住宅項目銷售表現的支撐。 該行對本地地產股評級及目標價表列如下: 公司?投資評級?目標價(港元) 新地(00016.HK)?買入?109.6元 嘉里建設(00683.HK)?買入?22.1元 長實集團(01113.HK)?持有?33元 恆地(00012.HK)?持有?24.6元
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