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植耀輝:「關稅之亂」打擊美股 太古(00019.HK)業績缺乏驚喜
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美國總統特朗普「關稅之亂」引發大衆對美國經濟衰退之擔憂,美股尤其是科技板塊近期亦出現股災式下跌。明明上屆十分關注美股行情,本輪他卻顯得漠不關心。雖然滿腹大計甚至不惜一切行事,但他似乎忽略了最重要一環,就是股市財富「縮水」之連鎖反應。美國經濟以內需消費主導,股市升跌對消費意欲亦有一定影響,所以一旦股市不濟,或會同時打擊消費情緒,最終美國經濟亦會無可避免受到影響。 相比之下,雖然港股近日表現有所回落,不過恆指於23,200點附近支持力不俗,何況只要北水繼續掃入阿里-W(09988.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)等權重股,變相亦會對恆指帶來支持。所以宜加倍留意北水之最新動態,對後市之啓示亦可能更大。 另外,雖然港股今年表現理想,不過由於地產市道未見起色,遂令一些持有大量物業之上市公司股價與資產淨值(NAV)存在大折讓。部分大股東便會選擇趁此良機用較低成本進行私有化。當然,憧憬大股東出高價的機會甚微,但作爲股東亦不會願意「賤賣」。之於何爲「賤賣」,不妨看看最新一宗私有化消息。金朝陽(00878.HK)在停牌近三週後宣佈以每股總代價8.5元(較停牌前股價5.5元溢價約55%)提出私有化,看似慷慨,惟與中期報告中,每股NAV 60.8元相比實屬九牛一毛;另外集團手頭現金約8.8億港元,以公衆持股約25%計,其私有化成本僅需約6.1億元,意味大股東不須動用一分一毫便可將公司私有化。其如意算盤能否打響,關鍵是小股果會否聯手反對。由於早前已有利福中國(02136.HK)私有化失敗之例子,金朝陽股價自公佈私有化後暫仍與作價有超過一成折讓,所以對其能否成事,筆者相當感興趣,亦會留意事態發展,未來將會與大家繼續跟進。 最後談談太古系業績表現。太古A(00019.HK)截至去年底止全年業績,基本溢利按年倒退11%至92.8億元,主要受地產業務表現疲弱,以及飲料業務因2023年下半年出售美國太古可口可樂權益所影響。航空業務表現則成爲唯一亮點。派息亦缺乏驚喜,以基本盈利計派息比率維持約45%,現價息率(約6釐)亦不算十分吸引。就連筆者較有寄望之回購股份(3年總值60億元之回購計劃已動用超過86%資金)亦未見有進一步消息,總體而言對該份業績表現是較爲失望。不過始終現價與NAV有相當大折讓,公司亦會繼續回購股份,加上筆者成本價相當低,故亦不急於現水平沽貨,會待其再有消息(例如新回購計劃)後始略爲減磅。 (筆者持有太古A及太古B(00087.HK)股份)~
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