植耀輝:算力需求大 Nvidia續持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,還記得長假期前跟大家分享了一些股神投資心得嗎?估不到這麼快便有機會「實踐」。DeepSeek橫空出現,導致一衆美國AI概念股急挫,不少分析形容爲「戳破AI神話/泡沫」。不過筆者卻選擇此時加註臺積電(TSM.US)及NVDA(NVDA.US),究竟是「別人恐懼時貪婪」還是撈得太早「低處未算低」他日自有分曉。不過決定加註之理由,在於認爲市場對未來算力需求過份悲觀。
當中要點包括DeepSeek以算法彌補算力不足,令投資者開始質疑科技巨企是否還值得花費鉅額資金去進行AI基礎建設。其實算法/算力出現突破遲早發生,因此筆者對DeepSeek並不太感到意外;倒是對有分析指算力需求未來或會減少的看法有點意見。簡單概念就是算力對科技公司永遠不會嫌多,即使是DeepSeek亦不會抗拒,而從Meta(META.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US)及微軟(MSFT.US)等科企今年仍會加大投資AI數據基建等已足夠表明算力之重要性。而且亦有一種稱爲Jevons Paradox之經濟理論,認爲當一項技術效能提升時,相關資源之使用量將不跌反升,有興趣的讀者可自行研究。至於兩者股價表現,近日即使反彈,但Nvidia走勢仍較TSM弱,反映市場對Nvidia之信心確有所動搖;前景恐怕要待Nvidia公佈業績(2月26日)及給予前瞻指引後始有望明朗化。不過在此之前,只要其股價企穩110美元之上,筆者仍會採取不變應萬變策略繼續持貨。
回說港股,A股造好加上科技概念股熱炒,推動恆指維持於年內高位爭持。雖然投資氣氛有所改善,只是特朗普出招「無路捉」,在此後顧之憂下,預期恆指暫亦較難衝破兩萬一關口。
股份方面,跟進中海油(00883.HK)最新部署。該公司較早前公佈2025年經營策略以及2025-2027年度之派息指引。雖然派息比率由不低於40%上調至45%,惟筆者認爲相關「賣點」只屬一般,同時亦將2025年淨產能目標由最多8億桶降至7.8億桶,意味增速亦較原先爲低。雖然有大行預期只要油價高於50美元/桶,其股息已高於0.7元(22至24年度之保證最低派息金額),惟未來油價走向存在相當高不確定性,尤其是特朗普有意加大美國本土石化能源產出以降低當地能源成本,以及OPEC+或恢復正常產出等均不利油價前景,故筆者決定將中海油剔出觀察名單之列。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有Nvidia及臺積電股份)~
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