植耀輝:美股信心仍不足 台積電(TSM.US)值得看好
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,若要筆者選一個當下最討厭人物,美國總統特朗普肯定是不二之選。其發起之關稅戰以及威脅聯儲局主席鮑威爾要馬上減息之做法嚴重打擊投資者信心並一度引發美股匯債「三殺」,情況反映特朗普硬推關稅政策根本未有充足考量,而逼鮑Sir減息一步更明顯另有目的。
事實上,鮑Sir在最新之講話中,已提到面對關稅之高度不確定性,局方不會貿然行動。特朗普又豈會不知箇中情況?不過,由其開打之關稅戰在國內外飽受批評,更可能觸發美國經濟衰退;但以其「不認輸」性格,最好就是將責任委過於人,所以鮑Sir今舖恐怕將會「硬食」矣!不過執筆之時特又再次反口,除了表示有意大減中國關稅外,亦指無意解僱鮑Sir,環球股市亦即時大幅反彈。雖然口風有變,但亦不要開心得太早,始終特朗普行事反覆無常,亦令大家入市缺乏信心。其實個別股份如台積電(TSM.US)筆者多次考慮增持,惟對整體市況仍不敢太樂觀,故暫亦只會按兵不動。
不過台積電季績及近日與之相關消息仍有很多值得討論的地方。台積電首季成績表依然相當理想,淨利潤按年增加60%,毛利率亦達到58.8%。當中先進製程(7納米或以下)佔比達到73%,並預期年內將維持70%至80%佔比。雖然面對美國關稅及特朗普針對台灣半導體行業之挑戰,不過董事長魏哲家仍表示今年會是穩健成長的一年,全年營收增長指引仍維持接近20%至30%之中位數。
另外,即使外界越來越多對AI前景之質疑,但魏哲家仍然重申,今年來自AI之收入將再倍增,並預估2024至2029年收入複合增長將達到45%,繼續成為成長動力之一大來源。而在技術發展上,2納米將於今年下半年量產,進一步拉開與同業之間之競爭優勢。當然,美國阿里桑那及日本熊本之廠房虧損值得關注,不過相信是與折舊及營運效率有待提升有關。總體而言,筆者對台積電信心仍在,亦會堅定持貨,只是加注的話,則可能要先問問特朗普何時「收手」才行!
(筆者持有台積電股份)~
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