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研報掘金丨華源證券:維持華能國際“增持”評級,煤價下降帶動業績改善

華源證券研報指出,華能國際(600011.SH)2025年一季度實現歸屬於母公司股東的淨利潤49.73億元,同比增加8.19%。一季度煤電機組量價齊跌,煤價下跌提供逆週期屬性,煤電貢獻主要利潤增量。新能源上網電量持續增長,回款狀況穩定。從投資的角度看,短期內煤價快速下跌或帶來階段性機會,但是長期來看,煤電存量機組電價穩定性、光伏盈利能力快速下降背景下的資本開支效率更值得關注。另一方面,由於當前受供需格局、電價機制以及光伏自身的出力特性影響,光伏新增機組盈利能力快速下降,在持續高強度資本開支的背景下,投資效率是影響小股東利益最核心的因素,當且僅當再投資IRR大於折現率時,再投資才能爲小股東帶來權益價值增厚。維持“增持”評級。

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