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A股午後發飆!大金融強勢衝鋒,3400點回來了!

今日午後,A股突然飆漲大金融“旱地拔蔥”,保險、券商、銀行等強勢爆發。

截至收盤,滬指一舉收復3400點失地,創近2個月新高;創業板指、北證50均漲超1%。

保險股領銜上攻,3600億市值的中國人保漲停,中國太保漲超8%。

“牛市旗手”券商股狂拉,紅塔證券漲停。

銀行股連續第三日上漲,A股銀行板塊總市值今日破10萬億元大關,建行、農行、交行等均創歷史新高。

發生了什麼?

此前中美達成共識互降關稅,金融市場想起了一陣狂歡,但A股當即並未表現出特別“興奮”。

近兩日,A股都處在震盪輪動狀態,滬指在3400點附近反覆爭奪,直至今日午後突然爆發。

到底發生了什麼?

一方面,在市場對貿易摩擦的擔憂緩解後,市場情的緒回暖帶動了指數上行。

中美互降關稅直接利好外貿出口相關行業,比如近來航運、跨境電商等板塊都表現的十分強勢。

另外,今天大金融的強勢護盤則或是多方因素共振。

除了市場上流傳的金融業一些小作文刺激外,券商板塊的爆發也意味着機構資金正在積極佈局。

隨着市場對宏觀經濟預期改善,市場交易活躍度提升。

而在公募基金新規下,機構表示被低配的金融板塊有望迎來增量資金。

華西證券認爲,公募新規引導資產配置向滬深300靠攏。

目前,A股銀行板塊在公募配置中的結構性矛盾。按照最新的數據(2025年一季度),公募在銀行板塊的配置比例大約3.49%,相較於滬深300指數權重低配9.99個百分點,相較於中證800指數權重低配6.99個百分點。

另外,《保險資金運用管理辦法》修訂,進一步放寬權益類資產風險因子,引發新一輪配置潮,險資對高股息高分紅板塊有天然的配置需求。

國金證券表示,當前公募在該板塊持倉較低,而公募新規要求業績回報要與業績基準進行比較,爲了不跑輸基準,基金經理可能會選擇配置基準內權重較高的行業,尤其是與基準里的比例相比主動權益當前低配的行業及個股,資金有望流向被低配的板塊。

市場重回活躍狀態

中美關稅峯迴路轉之後,外資流入A股的資金量明顯在增加。

華爾街投行也紛紛看好中國股市。

此前,大摩強調貿易談判點燃樂觀預期,對衝基金正加大對中國股票的多頭押注。

瑞銀也預判,A股有望重拾上漲動力,並建議投資者戰術性增持成長型股票,以提高投資組合的彈性。

東興證券指出,在中美談判超預期的情況下,壓制市場的重要因素短期緩解,市場將會重回活躍狀態。

從中期來看,如果二季度業績持續改善得到驗證,指數有望開啓新的上漲週期,關鍵驗證時點在7到8月,半年報和關稅博弈的雙重窗口,將會決定市場的方向。

在此之前,市場有望維持區間盤升的走勢,有衝擊前期震盪區間上軌的可能,但完全開啓二波牛市的時點仍需等待在7到8月的方向選擇是否成立。

投資策略,隨着關稅談判超預期,市場風險偏好顯著提升,可關注受關稅衝擊較大的出口鏈,存在較大的修復預期。從景氣角度,仍然重點關注大科技板塊。

光大證券稱,關稅的問題暫時得到解決,爲市場提供了支撐和底氣。

但目前滬指已經逼近了3月份的高點,若想向上突破,還需要更多的利好刺激,預計市場短期或以震盪休整爲主,等待更多的利好政策出爐。

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