研報掘金丨方正證券:維持中遠海控“推薦”評級,長期價值修復空間較大
方正證券研報指出,中遠海控(601919.SH)25Q1歸母淨利同比+73%至116.9億,環比+6.5%。歐線長協切換增厚單箱收入、美線箱量體現搶運,集運利潤率明顯提升。紅海繞行下運價或仍保持一定盈利區間內季節性寬幅震盪,關稅更多體現爲跨航線運力動態平衡的結構性變化,關注美國“掛港稅”影響。以格局+優質資產負債表+穩定股東回報的確定性,應對外部不確定性。公司主業端“格局爲運價託底”與報表端利息收入+投資收益下,中長期盈利中樞或具備支撐,PB/淨現金構築安全邊際;同時穩定分紅(50%分紅率下對應25年A/H 股息率6%/8%)與積極回購也將帶來可觀的股東回報,長期價值修復空間較大。此外供應鏈事件也將帶來運價超預期的額外期權。基於紅海短期內難以全面復航,維持2025-2027年歸母淨利潤預測282.9、189.1、210.6億元,維持“推薦”評級。
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