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研報掘金丨申萬宏源:維持上汽集團“增持”評級,減值計提後公司輕裝上陣

申萬宏源研究指出,2024年上汽集團(600104.SH)利潤下滑,主要由於銷量減少和資產減值計提。減值計提後公司輕裝上陣,爲未來發展奠定基礎。 2025Q1公司銷量94.5萬輛,同比+13.3%,營收1408.60億元,同比-1.55%,但淨利率提升至2.91%,費用率下降至8.74%,同比-1.78pct,顯示公司內部整合效果顯著。自主品牌、新能源汽車、海外經營“三駕馬車”,共助集團完成新老賽道轉換。考慮到轉型期的投入較大,以及合資品牌燃油車當前銷量下滑帶來收入和利潤的影響,下調25年營收預測由8052億元至7001億元,下調利潤預測由213億元至105億元。新增26-27年營收預測7496/8007億元,利潤預測120/140億元,對應PE爲18/16/13倍。參考可比公司廣汽、長安、賽力斯、長城汽車的26/27年估值18/14倍,仍有約10%上升空間,維持“增持”評級。

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