研報掘金丨華創證券:比亞迪4月銷量穩健,純電與出海表現亮眼,維持“強推”評級
華創證券研報指出,比亞迪(002594.SZ)4月銷量穩健,純電與出海表現亮眼。4月總銷量38.0萬輛,同比+21%、環比+1%;1-4M25累計138萬輛/+47%。假設全年銷量550萬輛,1-4M25達成率爲25%,去年同期累計達成率爲22%。結構上,今年主推的智能化與兆瓦閃充技術對純電車型產品力提升明顯,帶動純電銷量和鋰電出貨上行。此外,海外延續高增勢頭,4M25海外銷售7.9萬輛/+93%、單月佔比21%;1-4M25累計28.5萬輛/+105%。公司產品週期確定性高,看好中期全球份額擴張。短期市場或擔心國內平價市場價格競爭加劇,我們認爲公司作爲行業龍頭仍有後手優勢。中期有望憑藉智能化、海外市場進行成長突圍。規模優勢、高度垂直和銷售結構也將支撐公司盈利能力的穩定/增長。維持25-27年核心預測,給予2025年25倍PE,維持目標市值1.45萬億元,對應目標價477.0元。考慮匯率及A/H溢價,調整港股目標價至463.0港元,對應A/H 1.1倍。維持“強推”評級。
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