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大行評級丨花旗:中行首季業績遜預期 對比同業更受貿易緊張及美聯儲降息影響
花旗發表報吿,預期市場對中國銀行首季業績反應負面,基於季度税後利潤按年跌2.9%遜預期。該行指,中行仍具備實現全年盈利增長的良好條件,但中行擁有更大的海外業務敞口,並服務國際貿易客户羣,可能面臨多項挑戰:包括美國關税升級導致國際貿易減少,令費用收入承壓;關税不確定性或阻礙企業海外擴張或資本支出計劃,減少海外貸款增長;鑑於中行或擁有比同業更大的出口導向客户羣,資產質素壓力或加劇。該行認為中行對比其餘內地大型國有銀行,受中美關税升級的盈利風險更大。花旗考慮到注資導致8.5%股權稀釋,中行H股今年預計股息率可能僅為5.3%,對比六大行平均5.4%並不突出。如美國經濟衰退情景實現,且美聯儲加速降息週期,基於對比同業更大的海外貸款組合,中行可能面臨更大的淨息差壓力。該行目前予中行H股“買入”評級及4.53港元目標價。
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