研報掘金丨中信證券:老樹開新芽,中國平安“慢牛之路開始”
中國平安日前公佈業績顯示,2025年一季度歸屬於母公司股東的營運利潤379.07億元,同比增長2.4%,其中,壽險及健康險業務歸屬於母公司股東的營運利潤268.64億元,同比增長5.0%。從經營核心指標看,壽險新業務價值128.91億元,同比增34.9%,新業務價值率32.0%,同比升10.4個百分點。銀保、社區金融NBV雙增,其中,銀保新業務價值同比增長170.8%,社區新業務價值同比增長171.3%;產險綜合成本率96.6%,同比優化3個百分點。非年化綜合投資收益率1.3%,同比升0.2個百分點。中信證券今日發佈研報稱,過去五年,中國平安持續推動戰略轉型,地產風險已經大幅化解,金融科技業務已經大幅降本增效,銀行業務迴歸穩健經營,產險憑藉商業模式優勢已恢復較強的盈利能力,壽險主業通過銀保、社區隊伍正在開啓新增長曲線,預計公司股價慢牛之路開始。中信證券指出,中國平安PB估值已經處於過去三年區間下限的情況下,公司股價具有較強的向上貝塔屬性;長期看,公司有望憑藉穩健的資產負債表和盈利能力,穿越週期,分享低成本負債的新發展機遇。維持2025/2026/2027年BVPS預測53.22/55.54/57.96元人民幣,維持PB估值體系不變,參考公司上市以來PB估值中樞(A股1.2x/H股1.2x),並適當考慮H股流動性折價因素,給予公司A股2025E 1.2x PB估值/H股2025E 1.1x PB估值,對應A/H股目標價分別爲64元人民幣/62港元(維持),維持“買入”評級。
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