研報掘金丨華安證券:維持中國鋁業“買入”評級,鋁土礦持續增產增儲
華安證券研報指出,中國鋁業(601600.SH)24年實現歸母淨利潤124億元,同比+85.38%;25Q1預計實現淨利潤62至67億元,同比+30%至40%。2025年以來隨着新增產能投產及鋁土礦供應問題緩解,氧化鋁價格呈現回落趨勢;電解鋁國內供給硬約束,需求穩定增長。“雙碳”要求國內電解鋁新增產能必須用原有產能置換,目前國內電解鋁產量幾乎飽和。2024年國內電解鋁產能佔全球的比重爲59.72%,全球供應鏈高度依賴中國供給,短期來看增量彈性有限,供給仍然偏緊。公司是全球鋁行業唯一擁有完整產業鏈的國際化大型鋁業公司,鋁土礦持續增產增儲,資源保障提升抗風險能力。維持“買入”評級。
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