市場維持低迷，等待選擇方向
一、市場指數表現與整體環境
今日，A股三大指數呈現震盪分化走勢。
截至收盤盤，滬指報3351..31點，下跌0.67%；深成指報10607.33點，下跌0.57%；創業板指報2128.21點，跌幅0.79%。
整個市場全天仍以弱勢震盪爲主，兩市超4300只個股下跌，兩市成交額1.19萬億元。
二、盤中異動板塊及原因分析
1）貴金屬板塊逆勢走強
西部黃金、曉程科技等個股領漲，主要受國際金價上漲驅動。特朗普政府貿易政策反覆及地緣供應鏈風險，推升了黃金的避險需求。此外，全球通脹預期升溫亦對貴金屬形成支撐。
2）創新藥板塊表現活躍
冠昊生物、三元基因等個股領漲，主要受政策與技術雙重利好驅動。政策層面，集採與醫保談判常態化背景下，商保增量及出海政策爲行業打開空間；技術層面，ADC藥物（抗體偶聯藥物）2023年全球銷售額突破104億美元，中國藥企加速佈局，GLP-1減重賽道競爭升級，創新藥企虧損收窄，市場對行業長期成長性預期增強。
三、市場下跌原因分析
1）流動性收縮與資金分流
今日成交額繼續低迷，顯示市場情緒趨謹慎。一季度以來，兩融資金與外資雖持續流入，但內資受一季報業績驗證期臨近影響，選擇觀望。此外，北京市發佈215個招商項目（總額954.5億元）及鋁產業兼併重組政策，部分資金轉向實體產業佈局，分流股市資金。
2）政策預期與業績壓力交織
儘管政策面釋放積極信號（如湖南支持科技型中小企業融資、十部門推動鋁產業高質量發展），但市場對一季報業績分歧加劇。如果業績不及預期，市場可能延續“政策博弈”特徵，估值驅動邏輯面臨考驗。
3）行業輪動與風格切換
前期漲幅較大的TMT板塊（如人工智能）今日回調，資金向防禦性板塊（貴金屬、醫藥）轉移。這種快速輪動加劇了市場波動，中小盤股因流動性較差更易受衝擊。
四、後市展望與策略建議
1）短期關注業績確定性
4月將進入一季報密集披露期，業績超預期的行業（如有色金屬、基礎化工細分領域）或成爲資金避風港。
2）中期佈局成長與政策主線
創新藥、低空經濟、人工智能等政策扶持領域仍具長期潛力。短期調整不改長期向好的趨勢。
近段時間，市場調整本質是資金在政策與業績間的再平衡。結構性機會將圍繞業績增長、政策紅利與產業升級展開。
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