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中金公司:2025—2027年煤機設備訂單韌性可能會好於市場預期
中金公司研報認為,目前煤價和煤炭企業盈利能力仍處於歷史相對高位,預計煤炭產量在2027年碳達峯前仍處於穩定或小幅增長狀態,預計2025—2027年煤炭行業整體產能利用率處於70%以上高位水平,煤炭固定資產投資在2027年之前出現大幅下滑的可能性較小,而且煤炭行業智能化滲透率仍有提升空間。因此,中金公司認為本輪煤機週期下行較2013—2017年那一輪可能有所差異,2025—2027年煤機設備訂單韌性可能會好於市場預期。2027年之後,煤炭行業產能利用率中期可能會回落到70%以內,煤機行業固定資產投資可能會面臨一定的下行壓力,取決於落後產能退出情況。
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