研報掘金丨東吳證券:維持洛陽鉬業“買入”評級,TFM及KFM銅礦增量顯著
東吳證券研報指出,洛陽鉬業(603993.SH)24年實現歸母淨利潤135億元,yoy+64%,2024Q4公歸母淨利爲53 億元,yoy-9.4%,業績符合預告。公司2024年仍保持“礦山+貿易”現代化礦業模式,礦山銅板塊量價齊升疊加貿易量增長帶動收入高速增長。銅品種產能躋身全球前十,毛利貢獻顯著,歸母淨利核心受毛利提升影響表現高增。公司核心聚焦銅、鈷品種,短期2025年產量預計中值爲63/11萬噸,與2024年基本持平,長期來看預計2028E產量分別爲100/10萬噸,2024-2028年銅CAGR 爲11%,其中銅主要來源核心項目TFM/KFM增產,公司積極推進TFM西區和KFM二期開發,逐步落實五年規劃目標。短期預計公司主要品種銅鈷價格保持堅挺,同時公司貿易量指引減少有望進一步提升公司毛利率,長期來看銅產量增長有望帶動公司業績持續提升,基於公司TFM及KFM銅礦增量顯著,維持“買入”評級。
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