研報掘金丨申萬宏源:愛瑪科技盈利增速可觀,予“買入”評級
申萬宏源研究研報指出,愛瑪科技(603529.SH)為電動兩輪車行業領先企業之一,加速國際化、數智化轉型。電動自行車新國標替換高峯,增量市場空間可期。認為2025年新國標疊加以舊換新政策預計推動行業進入替換高峯,預計2025-2030 年電動兩輪車年銷量維持6000萬輛高位,預計2025年銷量6454萬輛,2030年6152萬輛。電摩方面,儘管政策管控導致銷量受限,但騎手剛需促使電輕摩滲透市場,存在對油摩和電動自行車的替代空間;電三輪受乘用需求驅動增長,年輕女性羣體帶來新增量,市場規模預計持續擴大;東南亞地區政策推動油轉電,電摩滲透率進入加速期,市場潛力巨大。公司為電動兩輪車行業領先企業之一,選取兩輪車優質品牌九號公司、春風動力及同樣擁有電摩產品的錢江摩托為對比公司,採用相對估值法,選取市盈率為估值指標,三家可比公司2024-2026年平均PE 為24x/18x/13x。當前公司擴產激進,控費能力強,盈利增速可觀,故給予其2025 年18x PE,對應其整體估值447億元人民幣,相較於當前(2025.3.4)市值仍有24%上升空間,給予“買入”評級。
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