中金:港股反彈建立在對科技趨勢樂觀情緒上 建議23,000至24,000點適度獲利以觀望
中金髮表港股策略報告,上週港股市場延續春節後的強勢並加速上漲,DeepSeek引發的市場對科技股甚至整體中國資產的重估熱情不斷擴散。恆生科技指數大漲7.3%,超過去年十月高點,創2022年初以來新高,恆生指數也上漲7%,距離去年10月初高點23,100點僅有一步之遙。春節後,以港股尤其是恆生科技指數引領的快速上漲,很容易讓大家聯想到去年9月24日那一輪同樣快速的上漲行情。對比二者,該行可以發現,相同點在於都是情緒驅動且交易型資金主導,但不同點是本輪行情更加聚焦在圍繞AI的科技板塊,結構性更顯著,也解釋了港股內部金融週期板塊和A股市場的大幅落後。該行指,中國資產重估的前景屬靜態透支,意味波動增加且需更多催化劑;但中期或促成更明顯的結構市。中金認爲本輪反彈的本質是建立在對科技趨勢的樂觀情緒上。這個情緒計入的程度和未來還有多少“想象空間”,是回答未來市場空間的關鍵,也是樂觀者和謹慎者的最主要分歧。中金建議在恆指23,000至24,000點附近適度獲利以觀望,決定下一步走向:第一是短期作爲上漲主線的科技領域直接相關的催化劑能否不斷涌現(如企業家座談會),在當前已經很高的預期上需要的催化劑也會更多更高;第二是未來幾周兩會政策窗口在總量上的政策信號(如財政赤字和專項債),如果超預期可以催化其他當前落後的順週期板塊補漲,低於預期的話有可能疊加目前已經透支的情緒讓部分投資者更有訴求階段性獲利。
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