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研報掘金丨中金:予中通快遞目標價25.7美元 建議關注長期投資價值
格隆匯 01-03 10:11
中金公司發表報吿指,2024年第四季快遞行業需求維持高位增長,該行認為新策略下中通快遞有望重回份額擴張通道,予其目標價25.7美元。考慮到包裹的輕小件化、直播電商發展、退貨率提升的趨勢有望在2025年延續,認為快遞行業件量仍將保持雙位數增長。展望2025年,考慮到公司曾在第三季業績説明會表態“業務量領先是我們業務的基石”,該行認為公司將轉變2024年在份額競爭上偏保守的策略,實現高於行業的件量增長,份額有望重回擴張通道、穩固龍頭地位。長期來看,監管仍將持續引導行業向高質量發展,龍頭快遞公司的服務和成本優勢仍將凸顯。近期公司累計回購約7.79億元,疊加此前公吿的每年股息總額不少於該財年分配利潤的40%。該股目前處於歷史較低水平,具備吸引力,建議關注公司作為龍頭的長期投資價值。
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