研報掘金丨國泰君安:維持皖通高速“增持”評級,上調目標價至20.06元
國泰君安研報指出,皖通高速(600012.SH)2024年受行業性需求波動與改擴建顯著影響,未來隨優質路產完成改擴建,將有限延長經營期限並保障長期盈利能力。預計高分紅持續,股息確定可期。2024年前三季度,公司歸母淨利潤12.2億元,同比下降10%;其中,日均車流量同比下降10%,通行費收入同比下降8%。除行業性冰凍雨雪及需求波動影響外,主要源於公司宣廣、廣祠高速改擴建自2024年3月實施單向通行,封閉部分站點,致使通行費下滑明顯。若剔除改擴建影響,估算其餘路產車流量與通行費同比仍正增長,韌性優於行業。其中寧宣杭高速貫通效應體現,無嶽高速通車拉動嶽武高速車流與收入大增。近日宣廣廣祠改擴建如期通車,有望繼續驅動車流與通行費持續增長。考慮公司分紅比例及股息率領跑行業,給予2025年20倍PE,上調目標價至20.06元,維持“增持”評級。
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