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摩根大通:阿里巴巴仍有可觀的用户增長潛力 收入增長有望加速

日前,摩根大通發佈報吿稱,阿里巴巴最新財報增強了他們的信心,即淘寶是中國大型電子商務平台中唯一仍有可觀用户增長潛力的企業,並認為在阿里巴巴的電商成交額和客户管理收入增長有望在下個季度加速。

11月15日,阿里巴巴集團發佈2025財年Q2財報,季度收入2365.03億元,同比增長5%,符合市場預期。對此,摩根大通的報吿表示,本季度的 GMV 增長情況主要原因是宏觀環境疲軟,預計12月季度的GMV和CMR將加速增長,其投資觀點保持不變。

報吿指出,儘管存在短期財務不確定性,但阿里對用户的投資帶來了更多的 GMV。阿里繼續在低價產品供應、客户服務(會員權益/履約)和技術方面進行投資,這使得 最新季度的訂單量實現了兩位數的環比增長,並在雙11促銷期間實現了強勁的 GMV 增長。

不久前,阿里率先在行業內開啟互聯互通,宣佈淘寶開始支持包括微信、支付寶、銀聯在內等多種支付方式,數據機構QuestMobile報吿顯示,淘寶宣佈支持微信支付當月,APP新安裝用户規模同比增長55%,達過去四年最高值;單月新增1867萬。

雖然阿里巴巴未來可能在獲取新用户上的支出,可能會導致其核心 EBITA的環比波動,而不是迅速轉正,但摩根大通認為,迄今為止的積極發展應該會讓投資者對長期趨勢更有信心。

報吿還強調,阿里巴巴貨幣化發展趨勢積極,“雖然阿里巴巴對進一步推動貨幣化(尤其是全平台推廣工具)持謹慎態度,但我們相信未來幾個季度的CMR同比增速將逐步加快。”摩根大通報吿表示。

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