研報掘金丨華創證券:考慮可比公司估值以及資產注入預期,維持陝西煤業“強推”評級
華創證券研報指出,陝西煤業(601225.SH)Q3歸母淨利潤53.9億元,同比/環比分別+17.1%/-8.8%。Q3單季度產量/自產煤銷量為4136.7/4061.1萬噸,環比-8.0%/-8.7%。往年Q4為煤礦安全事故高發期,產地安監力度加強使Q3公司煤炭產銷量下降。9月中旬後供暖需求開啟,電廠補庫需求釋放,疊加大秦檢修利好推動價格反彈。展望四季度,動力煤價格或平穩運行,需求端下游電廠庫存水平充裕一定程度上壓制迎峯度冬需求,供應端接近年末或檢修增加產量釋放有限。公司控股陝煤電力將成為打造“煤電一體化”的有力舉措,公司盈利穩健性將明顯提升;基於2024年Wind一致預期和60%的分紅比例,當前時點公司股息率約為5.4%。考慮可比公司估值以及公司資產注入預期,給予公司2025年12倍PE,對應目標價29.04元,維持“強推”評級。
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