國泰君安:中國製造具備競爭優勢 產品出海和產能出海共同發力
國泰君安表示,全球資本和貨物流動顯示美國主導的製造業迴流正在進行。往後看,預計美國國內和對外投資將持續加碼,日韓及印度/越南等新興經濟體將繼續承接產業鏈轉移,而歐洲製造業提升難度較大。考慮到海外製造業體系的完備性較弱,部分面臨人力和原材料成本壓力,製造業迴流進程存在較多困難,進展速度可能逐步放緩。而中國製造業體系完善,有望憑藉產品性價比和部分領域的技術先發優勢,繼續在國際市場保持競爭地位。相關出海投資線索:①新興經濟體基礎設施和產能建設加速,中國工程機械/船舶/電網設備/基礎化工受益;②中國消費品性價比優勢突出,非美國家出口加速,關注家電/傢俱/紡服;③中國在部分領域具備技術和產能優勢,產能出海挖掘需求增量且規避貿易限制,關注電子/鋰電/汽車及零部件等。
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