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研報掘金|中金:十一黃金週強勁表現有望推動澳門博彩行業第四季基本面
中金髮表報吿指出,根據澳門博彩監察協調局數據,澳門第三季總博彩收入按年增長13.9%,按季下降1.5%,恢復至2019年第三季總博彩收入的78.5%。該行預測第三季澳門博彩業EBITDA按年增長5%,但按季跌2%,至19.26億美元,恢復至2019年第三季的83%,考慮到本季度總博收表現略為乏力,但是行業再投資率環境較為穩定。此外,該行預期十一黃金週強勁表現,有望推動澳門博彩行業第四季基本面,估計澳門博彩業第四季總博彩收入按季升4%,按年升5%,主要由於人民幣兑港幣升值,或吸引訪客迴流並增強客户消費能力;政府推出一系列刺激政策後,消費者信心有望於第四季增強;非博彩活動(如劉德華演唱會)有望增加客流量。但該行認為,行業增速或受到澳門迴歸25週年紀念活動期間的交通出行限制的小幅影響。該行重申對銀河娛樂及永利澳門的“跑贏行業”評級,認為銀河娛樂受惠於銀河3期持續放量,以及銀河嘉佩樂酒店(36間空中別墅及57間套房)計劃於2025年中開業;看好永利澳門基於公司擁有行業內頂級客户資源,有望相較於同業更受益於財富效應。行業中,該行選股排序依次為銀娛及永利澳門、美高梅中國及金沙中國、新濠博亞娛樂、澳博控股。
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