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研報掘金|招商證券:上調阿里巴巴目標價至126美元 維持“增持”評級
招商證券國際發表研報指,對阿里巴巴未來的商品成交金額(GMV)增長持樂觀態度,並預計核心業務客户管理收入(CMR)及GMV的增速差距將逐漸縮窄,主要得益於優化流量分配機制;用户購買頻率增加;全站推工具覆蓋範圍進一步擴大;淘寶及閒魚收取0.6%額外技術服務費,預計阿里2025財年收入、CMR、經調整EBITA將按年錄得增長。該行亦預期,阿里旗下國際數字商業業務2025財年的增長率將達30%;雲業務增速將於2025財年逐步加速,利潤率亦持續提升。該行將阿里2025至2027財年的非通用會計準則淨利潤上調1%至6%,預測2025財年的總股東回報率將達約8%,並期待阿里於今年9月份被納入港股通。考慮到盈利預期上調、估值區間調整、匯率變化等影響,招商證券將阿里目標價由124美元上調至126美元,維持“增持”評級。
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