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研報掘金丨東吳證券:維持陽光電源“買入”評級,沙特7.8GWH大單落地
東吳證券研報指出,沙特7.8GWH大單落地,陽光電源(300274.SZ)儲能業務有望持續高增。根據目前的行情,該行估計中東海外儲能項目價格為0.9-1/wh,此項目預計超10億美金,假設毛利率為20-25%,淨利率約10-15%,對應淨利潤約8-12億元,項目預計2024H2開始交付,2025 年實現全容量併網,預計該項目利潤大頭於2025年體現,有望增厚2025年業績。陽光除了最早深耕美國外,全球大儲市場都有全面的佈局,憑藉產品優勢取得高份額,2023年及之前美國出貨佔比40%-50%,2024 年公司預計總體出貨20gwh 以上,2024 年美國出貨佔比預計降至20-30%,未來隨新市場進一步起量,佔比預計還將持續降低。陽光有望保持穩定增長,全年預計出貨150-170GW,同增20%+,預計2024Q2環比2024Q1明顯好轉,下半年需求更加旺盛,項目進入集中交付期,2024H2公司出貨及業績有望逐季環增。給予24年18倍PE,目標價 91元,維持“買入”評級。
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