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大行評級|摩根大通:受惠減息憧憬本港地產股短期或跑贏惟升浪恐難持續
摩根大通發表研究報吿指出,香港地產股近期或可能會跑贏大市,但單靠減息並不會推動持續的升幅,因為行業基本面仍未出現轉勢,包括住宅庫存水平高企、零售面對匯率阻力及寫字樓需求疲軟。報吿提出,在過去就美國國債息率、美國利率及香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)的分析得出的主要結論有三,一是在減息週期中地產股股價通常都表現得更弱,二是股價有可能在首次減息前錄得短期的跑贏大市,最後是除了領展及恒基地產歷史上對利率變化最為敏感外,香港地產股整體在美國國債收益率下行週期的表現都不太突出。摩通亦提出,香港地產股過往的表現沒有顯示出與HIBOR有強勁關聯。該行指,領展及恒地的股息率分別達8%及7.7%,仍具吸引力,另該行建議買入領展而造淡九龍倉置業,主要是看好必要類零售多於非必要消費。
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