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研報掘金丨國泰君安:瀘州老窖業績增長相對穩健,維持“增持”評級
國泰君安研報指出,瀘州老窖(000568.SZ)股東大會強調將長遠發展置於首位,持續夯實供應鏈基礎,精進營銷管理。當前處於白酒淡季,低度國窖率先進入控貨挺價階段,為後續中秋動銷奠定市場基礎。關於白酒行業當前所處週期,應理性看待。客觀上,一方面白酒消費羣體逐步完成代際切換,白酒需求迭代,另一方面行業集中化已是必然趨勢,認為對於頭部企業來説仍有增長機會和空間。基於此,公司在求穩的基礎上轉換思路積極求變,圍繞目標客羣進行營銷管理,有望滿足新興和細分需求,創造增量。考慮公司業績增長相對穩健,參考可比公司估值給予公司2024年PE 20X,下調目標價至218元,維持“增持”評級。
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