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冠軍基金經理萬家黃海玩起了輪動

煤炭股飆升,黃海成為明星基金經理。黃海之所以得到市場高度關注,是因為2022年憑藉重倉煤炭,旗下基金萬家精選奪得主動權益類基金冠軍;2023年萬家精選打破“冠軍魔咒”,收益率超過20%;今年以來萬家精選繼續保持高戰鬥力,收益率19.09%。

黃海近一年收益率33.48%,市場同類基金經理中排名第一。截至一季度末,黃海在管基金總規模為65.95億元,與2023年末的34.43億元相比,同比增長91.55%。

這位明星基金經理,近一年調研次數0,平均換手率80.83%。他在一季報中透露短期參與過算力、電子、新能源等成長行業,之後快速調倉。

從全部持倉看,與2023年末相比,黃海在一季度新募來的錢繼續加倉煤炭,大幅增持淮北礦業、中煤能源、華陽股份、廣匯能源、山煤國際、潞安環能等股票;新集能源成為一季度新晉重倉股,寧波銀行退出2023年四季度末前十大重倉股之列。

從一季度末全部持倉來看,重倉股依舊是煤炭為代表的舊能源。然而,黃海並不是持倉不動,而是玩起了輪動。黃海在一季報中坦言,自己其實短期參與過算力、電子、新能源等成長行業,之後快速調倉到煤炭。

黃海在季報中表示:“回顧一季度,我們整體的思路延續過去兩年防守反擊的做法,當市場處於恐慌的階段,適度增加組合的彈性和進攻性,尤其在春節前流動性風險衝擊較大的時候,快速增加了算力、電子、新能源等成長行業的倉位,而當紅利資產由於風格的輪動出現回調時,則兑現大部分高彈性標的,重新集中配置到煤炭為代表的能源股中。

展望二季度,黃海指出,儘管目前外需支撐了出口和製造業,但接下來市場的關注點將重新回到國內的經濟和政策的應對上來,A股將演繹震盪分化的結構性行情。

黃海認為,在今年國內外的宏觀環境下,依然判斷低負債、高現金流的煤炭股具備較高的安全性和稀缺性;同時,一旦國內基建投資企穩回升後,庫存處於低位的國內週期品將迎來較好的價格向上彈性,將積極平衡好組合的防禦性和進攻性,以期適應宏觀週期的變化,實現淨值的穩健增值。

黃海在2023年年報中表示,市場在經歷國內地產風險和海外通脹風險的出清後,有望真正開啟震盪向上的週期,投資機會相比2023年明顯擴散,2024年可能成為拐點之年。

展望2024年宏觀環境,黃海表示,2024年政策依然會在穩增長、調結構和防風險等多目標下平穩發力,市場對宏觀經濟的預期會經歷由弱到強的過程。

對於海外市場,黃海認為,海外美國財政擴張依然在持續,金融條件保持寬鬆,二次通脹的風險“若隱若現”,降息週期的到來可能會晚於市場的預期,全球大類資產仍或將面臨一定的波動。

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