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《大行報告》麥格理降京東健康(06618.HK)目標價至24.7元 盈利上升空間受限
麥格理發表報告,指京東健康(06618.HK)去年下半年業績符預期,龐大開支壓抑利潤率;去年末季收入按年跌7%,經調整經營溢利跌81%至5,200萬元人民幣,經調整經營利跌潤率跌1.3個百分點至僅0.4%。該行料歸咎於2022年末季因疫情令基數較高,去年下半年在下調免運費門檻後,履約成本上升及平均交易價值下跌,以及第三方業務加大宣傳致銷售推廣開支增加。 該行認為,今年有正常化的比較基礎下,或支持增長,但短期盈利上升空間受限。該行料今年京東健康收入按年升17%,第三方銷售料跑贏直銷,由於向新商戶提供更多補貼,料第三方GMV增長將跑贏收入增長,導致提成率下滑。該行料其經營溢利持續改善,但被更高履約成本及利息收入下滑所抵銷,料今年京東健康經調整純利47億元人民幣。 考慮經營開支壓力上升,報告降其今明兩年盈測分別2%及12%,估值方法由市銷率改為市盈率,因行業成熟後盈利成為重要股價動力。以預測市盈率15倍為估值基礎,目標價相應由35.3元降至24.7元,評級「跑輸大市」。
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