《大行報告》匯豐研究降中海油(00883.HK)目標價至19.8元 減派息可能抑制市場情緒惟增長不變
匯豐環球研究發表研究報告指,中海油(00883.HK)去年純利按年跌13%至1,240億元人民幣,雖然低於市場預期,但仍符合該行的預測。該行認為,儘管近期的市場情緒或會影響中海油利潤下跌及股息較低,惟相信隨著石油和天然氣的產量持續擴大,中海油的增長前景不會受到挑戰,預計集團於2024至2026年將增長4至11%,而總成本亦得到良好控制。
因此,假設油價維持高位,該行預計中海油現金流將會改善,而中期內資本開支增長將會放緩,或會為同股東帶來更好的潛在回報。該行維持集團「買入」評級,但目標價由20.2元下調至19.8元,相當預測市賬率1.16倍。
該行表示,中海油經營現金流為2.1億元人民幣。扣除1.21億元人民幣的現金資本開支後,預計自由現金流為8,900萬元人民幣,約佔中海油2023年股息分配的150%。雖然現金流強勁,但削減派息可能令投資者失望,或會抑制市場情緒。不過,公司將多餘的現金用作還債,令資產負債率降至15%。該行認為,集團審慎的財務規劃長遠來看對股東有利,並持續看到股東未來獲得更好回報的空間。
另外,由於積極開發和生產維護,匯豐研究預計中海油的資本開支將維持較高水平,但增長將大幅放緩。中海油預計今年資本開支為1,250億至1,350億元人民幣(按年跌2%至4%),該行料2024至2026年將維持類似變幅水平。
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