《大行報告》摩通降蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至35元 大部分負面因素已在估值打折中反映
摩根大通發表報告,指蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)年初至今股價累跌約6.7%,對比同期恆指則跌1.9%,滬深300指數及另一乳業龍頭伊利(600887.SH)則分別累升4.1%及升7.7%,相信主要是由於全球投資者對中國消費市道放緩、乳酸產品銷售下滑,以及蒙牛股息率偏低的擔憂加劇所致。
該行指出,今年農曆新年過後中國整體消費情況似乎已恢復正常化,考慮到現金流改善,蒙牛或會提高派息比率。以現價水平為預測2024年市盈率約12倍計,摩通認為其估值打折已反映了大部分的負面因素,並為業績公布的盈利潛在下跌提供了下行保護。
摩通預測蒙牛去年全年銷售額將增長7%至992億人民幣,經營利潤率料增長約50個基點至6.3%,純利預測持平錄53億人民幣,假設全年派息比率從30%提升至50%,則預測2024年股息回報率可升至約3.8%,維持「增持」評級,目標價則從41元降至35元。
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