《大行報告》高盛升中外運(00598.HK)評級至「中性」 偏好中通快遞(02057.HK)
高盛發表研究報告指,2023年物流行業價格競爭加劇,快遞平均服務價格跌勢並延續至2024年初,預計3月起實施的《快遞市場管理辦法》將提高「最後一公里」成本,有助支持平均服務價格。不過,由於行業產能過剩及市場結構仍然分散,該行認為快遞服務價格不太可能持續上升。在正面方面,年初至今快遞包裹量業務一直呈現高於預期的趨勢,首兩個月按年增幅為29%,高於去年第四季的27%及去年全年的19%。
目前高盛預測,在持續的價格競爭下今年主要以加盟形式經營的物流公司,平均售價將下降6%至9%,並將今年行業包裹量增長預測由10%上調至14%。假設今年定價壓力持續存在,該行將2023至2025年所覆蓋的物流公司快遞業務量預測上調1%至22%,而今明兩年收入預測下調4%至上調11%,純利預測下調7%至31%,目標價下調7%至38%。
高盛繼續看好中通快遞(02057.HK),是唯一給予「買入」評級的快遞公司,目標價219元;同時將中外運(00598.HK)評級從「沽售」上調至「中性」,以反映股息率及運費率正常化的支持,目標價3.9元。另維持對嘉里物流(00636.HK)的「中性」評級,目標價11.1元。
高盛發表研究報告,對物流股投資評級及目標價表列如下:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
中通快遞(02057.HK) | 買入 | 281元 → 219元
中國外運(00598.HK) | 沽售 → 中性 | 3.1元 → 3.9元
嘉里物流(00636.HK) | 中性 | 17.4元 → 11.1元
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