《大行報告》瑞銀料中資股盈利成支撐市場短期關鍵 估計MSCI中國指數今年股盈增長10%
瑞銀發表報告指出,中國股市今年開局波動,目前為止推動股價表現的主要因素是資金流向而非基本面。最近於「國家隊」支持下,資金技術性外流因素的影響已很大程度上被抵銷。而最近「國家隊」減慢入市,雖然大市下行空間有限,惟可能需要根本性的改善才能進一步提振市場。
該行認為,投資者關注的關鍵基本面因素包括全國人大會議後的政策跟進;中資股盈利趨勢;生產者物價指數(PPI)表現;樓市穩定性。由於目前政策支持或較為溫和,且房地產市場狀況仍充滿挑戰,在不確定性較大的情況下,PPI及房地產市場的復甦或將於下半年才出現。
另一方面,對於企業而言,增加資本回報率和盈利可能是亮點,自由現金流收益率處於歷史高位,國家統計局工業利潤於去年第四季呈現強勁勢頭。至於盈利超預期的公司股價表現明顯跑贏,該行估計中資股盈利成支撐市場短期關鍵。
該行提及,滬深300指數年初至今累升5%,而MSCI中國指數僅下跌4%。近年來隨著MSCI中國公司的自由現金流量顯著增加,資本回報能力也有改善。該行繼續預測今年MSCI中國指數每股盈利將增長10%。
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