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《大行報告》大摩升中國重汽(03808.HK)及濰柴(02338.HK)目標價 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,俄羅斯於2023年8月實施更高的報廢關稅,導致重型卡車(HDT)需求下降及出口放緩,但期內中國HDT整體銷量仍按年增長37%至20.4萬輛,令人感到驚喜。由於進入供暖季節後油氣價差高於預期,令液化天然氣(LNG)車型的滲透率由2022年第四季的5%,大幅上升至22%。 該行預期,LNG HDT的增長趨勢料於今年上半年持續,自1月中旬以來油氣價差已擴大至30%以上,估計3月份供暖季結束後油氣價差可能進一步擴大,意味著LNG HDT銷售將繼續向好。而於出口方面,主要受到俄羅斯去庫存的影響,大摩目前預計今年首季HDT總銷量將按年增長6%至2.55萬輛,並維持全年銷量100萬輛的預測。 基於對LNG HDT銷售及行業出口最新預期,該行認為濰柴(02338.HK)上半年盈利更具韌性,預測首季收入及盈利將按年增長12%及39%,增長放緩幅度預期較小,因此短期內更看好濰柴,將目標價由18元上調至18.4元,並將2023至2024年純利預測上調5%及2%至91億元人民幣及110億元人民幣,2025年則下調1%至129億元人民幣,予「增持」評級。 考慮到出口業務利潤率高於國內業務,該行相信中國重汽(03808.HK)將要面對出口下滑時利潤率相應下降的風險。不過基於去年度盈利向好,將2023至2025年純利預汀上調34%、22%及20%,目標價由18元升至23元,評級「增持」,認為估值具有吸引力。
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