惠譽:中海油(00883.HK)因油價利好及產量穩健繼續表現強勁
評級機構惠譽表示,受高基數和需求疲軟的影響,今年中國國有石油公司的煉化加工量按年增速或將放緩,從而令煉化和營銷業務的利潤率承壓。
由於燃油車銷量持續下滑,惠譽預計汽油需求的增長將放緩。工業活動低迷疊加房地產下行將拖累柴油需求。國際航線和長途旅行需求的增加為煤油需求的增長提供支撐,不過煤油在成品油總量中所佔份額較小。
隨著今年第一批出口配額發放,短期出口量或有增長。去年出口量受到配額限制,同時出口利潤率仍具吸引力,而此次配額的發放有助於消化過剩產能。
在城市燃氣和運輸需求復甦的推動下,中國的天然氣消費量去年增長7.6%,惠譽預計今年其將繼續保持中個位數增長。俄羅斯的管道天然氣增加及得益於部分新的液化天然氣接收站密集投產及現貨價格下降推升液化天然氣進口量,從而可滿足部分需求。繼去年下修後,國有石油公司的天然氣進口成本或會保持穩定,加之居民用戶成本轉嫁機制的改善,應有助於控制其今年的天然氣進口損失。
惠譽預計,中石化(00386.HK)、中石油(00857.HK)及母公司中國石油天然氣集團強勁的財務狀況有助於其抵禦疲軟的煉化表現和持續的天然氣進口損失。僅專注於上游業務的中海油(00883.HK)因油價利好及產量穩健而繼續表現強勁。
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